[QSB-grads] A good pandemic model

[Noelle Anderson]

Hi everyone,

To follow-up on that, here's a 10 minute video by a few great scientists about some coronavirus projections and what we can do (which Miriam mentioned) to protect our communities and get through this without overwhelming the US medical system:  https://abetterscientist.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/new-video-covid19-in-numbers-r0-the-case-fatality-rate-and-why-we-need-to-flatten-the-curve/

Hope everyone is staying safe, calm, and responsible!
Noelle

On Mar 11, 2020, at 7:36 PM, Miriam Barlow <miriam.barlow at gmail.com<mailto:miriam.barlow at gmail.com>> wrote:

Dear QSB members,

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795

Here is a link to a really good paper from 2006 modeling the 1918 flu pandemic with modern travel meta-data.  It is very similar to a coronavirus pandemic. The R0 of influenza was lower than for coronavirus so that will change the results with coronavirus.  Coronavirus will progress more rapidly and the peaks may be more extreme.

They look at the effects of school closure and travel bans and border closures and quarantines and none are very effective.  Vaccines and antivirals help, but of course we don't have those.  Pre-emptive travel restrictions and quarantine instead of reactive travel restrictions may also change the outcome.

You can of course totally isolate yourself and remove yourself from the model entirely by not traveling and having no contact.

Not touching your face and cleaning surfaces and hand washing and maintaining a 6 foot distance between people were not included in the model and those things might also help.

I will let you come to your own decisions about the extent to which you would like to socially isolate yourself and it may depend upon factors like age and health.

Live long and prosper.
Miriam

--
Miriam Barlow
University of California, Merced

209.228.4174
miriam.barlow at gmail.com<mailto:miriam.barlow at gmail.com>

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