[QSB-grads] A good pandemic model

[Miriam Barlow]

Dear QSB members,

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795

Here is a link to a really good paper from 2006 modeling the 1918 flu
pandemic with modern travel meta-data.  It is very similar to a coronavirus
pandemic. The R0 of influenza was lower than for coronavirus so that will
change the results with coronavirus.  Coronavirus will progress more
rapidly and the peaks may be more extreme.

They look at the effects of school closure and travel bans and border
closures and quarantines and none are very effective.  Vaccines and
antivirals help, but of course we don't have those.  Pre-emptive travel
restrictions and quarantine instead of reactive travel restrictions may
also change the outcome.

You can of course totally isolate yourself and remove yourself from the
model entirely by not traveling and having no contact.

Not touching your face and cleaning surfaces and hand washing and
maintaining a 6 foot distance between people were not included in the model
and those things might also help.

I will let you come to your own decisions about the extent to which you
would like to socially isolate yourself and it may depend upon factors like
age and health.

Live long and prosper.
Miriam

-- 
Miriam Barlow
University of California, Merced

209.228.4174
miriam.barlow at gmail.com
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