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Hi everyone,
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<div class="">To follow-up on that, here's a 10 minute video by a few great scientists about some coronavirus projections and what we can do (which Miriam mentioned) to protect our communities and get through this without overwhelming the US medical system:
<a href="https://abetterscientist.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/new-video-covid19-in-numbers-r0-the-case-fatality-rate-and-why-we-need-to-flatten-the-curve/" class="">https://abetterscientist.wordpress.com/2020/03/11/new-video-covid19-in-numbers-r0-the-case-fatality-rate-and-why-we-need-to-flatten-the-curve/</a></div>
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<div class="">Hope everyone is staying safe, calm, and responsible!</div>
<div class="">Noelle </div>
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<div class="">On Mar 11, 2020, at 7:36 PM, Miriam Barlow <<a href="mailto:miriam.barlow@gmail.com" class="">miriam.barlow@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div>
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<div dir="ltr" class="">Dear QSB members,
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<div class=""><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795" class="">https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04795</a></div>
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<div class="">Here is a link to a really good paper from 2006 modeling the 1918 flu pandemic with modern travel meta-data. It is very similar to a coronavirus pandemic. The R0 of influenza was lower than for coronavirus so that will change the results with
coronavirus. Coronavirus will progress more rapidly and the peaks may be more extreme.</div>
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<div class="">They look at the effects of school closure and travel bans and border closures and quarantines and none are very effective. Vaccines and antivirals help, but of course we don't have those. Pre-emptive travel restrictions and quarantine instead
of reactive travel restrictions may also change the outcome.</div>
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<div class="">You can of course totally isolate yourself and remove yourself from the model entirely by not traveling and having no contact. </div>
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<div class="">Not touching your face and cleaning surfaces and hand washing and maintaining a 6 foot distance between people were not included in the model and those things might also help.</div>
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<div class="">I will let you come to your own decisions about the extent to which you would like to socially isolate yourself and it may depend upon factors like age and health. </div>
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<div class="">Live long and prosper.</div>
<div class="">Miriam<br clear="all" class="">
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<div dir="ltr" class="">Miriam Barlow</div>
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<div class="">University of California, Merced</div>
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<div class="">209.228.4174</div>
<div class=""><a href="mailto:miriam.barlow@gmail.com" target="_blank" class="">miriam.barlow@gmail.com</a></div>
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