[LDES-technology] Fwd: [TheGridLab] California 85% by 2030 study out!

[Sarah Kurtz]

FYI

Begin forwarded message:

From: Priya Sreedharan <priya at gridlab.org<mailto:priya at gridlab.org>>
Subject: [TheGridLab] California 85% by 2030 study out!
Date: May 10, 2022 at 8:16:26 PM PDT
To: GridLab List Serve <thegridlab at gridlab.org<mailto:thegridlab at gridlab.org>>

Friends of GridLab,

We're excited to share that our California 85% by 2030 clean electricity study was released publicly yesterday! GridLab led the technical study and Energy Innovation led the policy paper. Telos Energy was our rockstar consultant for the technical study and we are so grateful for Derek Stenclik and Mike Welch's partnership on this effort!

Here are the links:

  *   The technical study<https://gridlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Technical-Report-5-9-22-Update1.pdf> is hosted on GridLab’s landing page<https://gridlab.org/california-2030-study/>. And I wanted to make a special note that we published a companion meteorological deep dive<https://gridlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GridLab_California-2030-Meteorological-Deep-Dive.pdf> authored by GridLab expert Justin Sharp.
  *   The companion policy paper<https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Achieving-An-Equitable-And-Reliable-85-Percent-Clean-Electricity-System-By-2030-In-California-1.pdf> that builds on the technical report findings is hosted on Energy Innovation’s landing page<https://energyinnovation.org/publication/85-percent-clean-electricity-by-2030-in-california/>.  (GL and EI's landing pages link to each others' reports)
  *   We developed two fact sheets (technical<https://gridlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GridLab_California-2030-Study-Fact-Sheet.pdf> and policy<https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/85-Percent-by-2030-for-California-Policy-One-Pager.pdf>), and a visual data explorer<https://energyinnovation.org/2022/05/08/a-reliable-85-percent-clean-grid-for-california-data-explorer/>

The technical study builds three different portfolios that reach 85% clean by 2030 (equivalent to a 75% RPS, which is more aggressive than the current 60% by 2030 goal) and "stress tests" these portfolios against a number of conditions that could compromise reliability of a future clean system (e.g., low hydro, less gas resources, August 2020 event conditions, less imports). This stress testing was done in PLEXOS with a zonal model of the whole West using 8 weather years (and for some stress cases, more weather years).

Our core finding is that an 85% clean electricity target is reliable. There are additional findings - such as the benefits of diverse clean resources (in terms of reliability and deployment feasibility) and the potential to retire some of the instate gas, but hopefully this is enough to tempt you to read the fact sheet or report!

On the methodological front, we believe this kind of stress testing is a useful way of asking "what if" questions that may not fall under the general rubric of the typical probabilistic modeling framework and is a complement to that kind of RA analysis.

The CEC was on our technical review committee and was fully engaged through the whole process (they supplied us with their PLEXOS model as the starting point). They are quite keen to use this kind of analysis, and build on it, for their future SB100 work. GridLab experts Michael Milligan, Justin Sharp and Ed Smeloff were a part of the technical review committee along with others.

We've also had a few media hits:

  *   Jeff St. John at Canary Media wrote up our reports in an article<https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/how-california-can-get-to-a-reliable-85-clean-grid-by-2030?utm_medium=email> published this morning and did a great job conveying the findings and top-line messages.
  *   Dan at EI authored a byline<https://www.utilitydive.com/news/reliably-hitting-85-clean-electricity-has-huge-implications-for-california/623442/> published today in Utility Dive, focusing a bit more on the policy recommendations and the studies’ implications for other states.

Feel free to reach out if you have questions! We'll also have a public webinar on May 24 at 11:30 PDT. You can register here<https://energyinnovation.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN__Esv3M02SUKsifYv5ZG0HQ>.

Best,
Priya

----
Priya Sreedharan, PhD, PE
Program Director
[https://drive.google.com/a/gridlab.org/uc?id=15WhPAP5F87CkW4BTlWXBeQQs7aImTAgK&export=download]
priya at gridlab.org<mailto:priya at gridlab.org> | gridlab.org<http://gridlab.org/>

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