[LDES-technology] Fwd: ATB Wind Class CAPEX Inquiry

[Sarah Kurtz]

In case you’re interested - I asked why NREL ATB shifted from giving different CAPEX values by wind class to a single CAPEX value - here is the response I got.

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Mirletz, Brian" <Brian.Mirletz at nrel.gov<mailto:Brian.Mirletz at nrel.gov>>
Subject: ATB Wind Class CAPEX Inquiry
Date: November 2, 2022 at 8:00:54 AM PDT
To: Sarah Kurtz <skurtz at ucmerced.edu<mailto:skurtz at ucmerced.edu>>

Sarah,

Thank you for your interest in the ATB!

The documentation<https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2022/land-based_wind> describes the standardized CAPEX as:

The defined turbine characteristics are used to estimate the total system CAPEX of a theoretical commercial scale (e.g., 200-MW) project. In the 2022 ATB, this site-specific design optimization process, which is often reflected in different CAPEX values across wind speed classes, is simplified. The CAPEX estimates for the Base Year (2020) is the same across the 10 wind speed classes. In 2030, the CAPEX changes for each of the scenarios (i.e., Conservative, Moderate, and Advanced) since each scenario assumes a different turbine technology. However, the CAPEX within each scenario does not change across the 10 wind speed classes. The relatively low observed sensitivity to significantly different turbine configurations for a single reference site indicates uncertainty and a need for wind turbine tailoring for varied site conditions. It is generally expected that over the long term wind turbine designs will be optimized for project specific site conditions. In the ATB, CAPEX reflects typical plants and does not include differences in regional costs associated with labor, materials, taxes, or system requirements. The related Standard Scenarios<https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/standard-scenarios.html> product uses regional CAPEX adjustments. The range of CAPEX demonstrates variation with wind resource in the contiguous United States.

In other words, the additional work required to vary the CAPEX did not significantly improve the model fit, so they decided to make a simplifying assumption.

Does that answer your question?

Brian Mirletz

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